期刊
AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT
卷 149, 期 -, 页码 20-29出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2011.12.008
关键词
Climate change; RiceGrow Model; Potential yield; Rainfed yield; Rice variety change
资金
- New Century Exceptional Talent Program of China [NCET-08-0797]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [30871448]
- National Basic Research program of China [2009CB118608]
- Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province [BK2008330]
- CSIRO-Chinese Ministry of Education (MOE)
China is one of the most important rice production countries in the world, and maintaining high rice productivity in China is very important for world food security. While previous studies showed that rice production in China has been and will be negatively impacted by global warming, the confounding effects of climatic change, variety improvement and agronomic managements have not been separately investigated. In this paper we combine an analysis of climate and rice growth data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice varieties, and agronomic management on rice productivity at four sites (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan) in China. The results showed a significant increase in minimum temperature during all rice growth stages at Wuchang and Zhenjiang, and from heading to maturity at Xinyang, but little change at Hanyuan. Global warming would have led to a reduction in the length of rice growing period and a reduction in grain yield at all study sites, if no varietal changes had occurred. However, the adoption of new rice varieties stabilized growing duration, increased harvest index and grain yield at three of the four sites. In the face of future warming, a planned breeding effort may be needed to offset the negative impact of future climate change. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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