期刊
AFRICAN JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
卷 33, 期 1, 页码 17-35出版社
NATL INQUIRY SERVICES CENTRE PTY LTD
DOI: 10.2989/1814232X.2011.572334
关键词
anchovy; ecosystem-based; fisheries management; frame-based modelling; sardine
资金
- South African Department of Science and Technology
This study explores the usefulness of a frame-based modelling approach in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, with four frames describing observed small pelagic fish dominance patterns. We modelled the dynamics of sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus populations under the influence of the small pelagic fishery and climate variability, performed extensive sensitivity analyses and exercised the model prototype in scenarios based on realistic management objectives. Model outputs were seen to roughly parallel observed dynamics. Frame dynamics were reasonably sensitive to frame switching rules. Reduced sardine recruitment in the 'low' frames had a strong negative impact on stock recovery, and bycatch of juvenile sardine from the modelled anchovy fishery could also greatly impair sardine recovery. Specific tests included exploring the robustness of fisheries management strategies under highly stochastic recruitment and uncertainty around long-term environmental forcing. The respective frame of the model is suggested as a composite indicator of ecosystem state. The model approach shows promise for evaluating small pelagic fisheries management strategies in an ecosystem context incorporating long-term environmental variability.
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