期刊
ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
卷 55, 期 -, 页码 204-214出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.07.024
关键词
Mountain hydrology; Snow melt; Climate change; Spatially distributed modeling; Ensemble technique
资金
- Swiss Electric Research
- BigLink project of the ETH Competence Center Environment and Sustainability (CCES)
- SoilTrec project of the European Union FP7
- EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES [505539]
We present a comprehensive hydrological modeling study in the drainage area of a hydropower reservoir in central Switzerland. To investigate the response of this 95 km(2) alpine watershed to a changing climate, we used both a conceptual and a physically based hydrological model approach. The multi-model approach enabled detailed insights into the uncertainties associated with model projections of future runoff based on climate scenarios. Both hydrological models consistently predicted changes of the seasonal runoff dynamics, including the timing of snowmelt and peak-flow in summer as well as the future spread between high and low flow years. However the models disagreed regarding the evolution of glacier melt rates thus leading to a considerable difference in predicted annual runoff figures. The findings suggest that snow-glacier feedbacks require particular attention when predicting future runoff from glacio-nival watersheds. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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