期刊
ADVANCES IN APPLIED PROBABILITY
卷 41, 期 3, 页码 765-796出版社
APPLIED PROBABILITY TRUST
DOI: 10.1239/aap/1253281063
关键词
Branching process; coupling; epidemic process; final outcome; households; local and global contacts; random graph; susceptibility set; threshold theorem
资金
- UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/E038670/1]
- Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
- EPSRC [EP/E038670/1] Funding Source: UKRI
In this paper we consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible-->infective-->removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly sized finite populations. The extension to unequal-sized households is discussed briefly.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据