Understanding current and future vulnerability in coastal settings: community perceptions and preferences for adaptation in Zanzibar, Tanzania

Many developing countries are already affected by multiple stressors, which have increased their vulnerability to accelerated negative environmental change. Coastal erosion, deforestation and habitat fragmentation become even more serious problems in coastal locations when coupled with the projected impacts of climate change. However, anticipatory adaptation to such changes as increased coastal erosion and extreme events does not need to wait for specific climate scenarios, but is more reliant on the examination of current vulnerabilities and the range of possible no-regret strategies. These need to, however, accommodate multiple stakeholder preferences. This study therefore examines coastal communities' perceptions of environmental change in northeast Zanzibar, Tanzania and their preferences for adaptive strategies, while simultaneously examining physical change processes through change analysis. The study suggests coastal forest buffer zones as an anticipatory adaptation measure, which is based on soft measures such as vegetation planting, awareness raising and stakeholder cooperation.