The Determinants of Migration from Sub-Saharan African Countries†

This paper investigates the determinants of migration from 45 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1965-2005. The significant determinants are armed conflict and lack of job opportunities. An additional year of conflict is estimated to raise emigration by 1.7 per 1,000 inhabitants, while an additional 1% reduction in relative growth is found to reduce emigration by 1.5 per 1,000. Demographic and environmental pressures are found to have a less important direct impact, although they may have an indirect impact on migration through conflict and job opportunities. Finally, evidence is found of a 'migration hump' in migration from SSA, which is consistent with the finding that much migration from SSA is forced.