Confucianism and the East Asian Miracle

We examine two behavioral traits essential to Confucianism, and put forward hypotheses as to whether these behavioral traits impede or are conducive to leading or follower mode growth. A dynamic leader-follower general equilibrium model with appropriately specified Confucian parameters is shown to generate results that correspond to some of the main features of East Asian economies: their miracle growths, subsequent slowdowns, trade surpluses, and persistent accumulations of foreign exchange reserves. We calibrate the model to assess the quantitative importance of these cultural effects and examine their implications for future evolution of these economies. (JEL E23, O17, O41, O47, P24, Z12, Z13)