A primary study of the correlation between the net air-sea heat flux and the interannual variation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track and intensity

A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is carried out to reveal the relationship between the interannual variation of track and intensity of the western North Pacific tropical cyclones (WNPTCs) in the tropical cyclone (TC) active season (July-November) and the global net air-sea heat flux (Q(net)) in the preceding season (April-June). For this purpose, a tropical cyclone track and intensity function (TIF) is defined by a combination of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index and a cyclone track density function. The SVD analysis reveals that the first mode is responsible for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the tropical central Pacific and the increased activity of western North Pacific (WNP) TIF, the second mode for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the North Indian Ocean and the northeastward track shift of WNPTCs and the third mode for the negative correlation between the upward heat flux in mid-latitude central Pacific and the northwest displacement of the WNP TC-active center. This suggests that Q(net) anomalies in some key regions have a substantial remote impact on the WNP TC activity.