Total Survey Error: Past, Present, and Future

Total survey error is a conceptual framework describing statistical error properties of sample survey statistics. Early in the history of sample surveys, it arose as a tool to focus on implications of various gaps between the conditions under which probability samples yielded unbiased estimates of finite population parameters and practical situations in implementing survey design. While the framework permits design-based estimates of various error components, many of the design burdens to produce those estimates are large, and in practice most surveys do not implement them. Further, the framework does not incorporate other, nonstatistical, dimensions of quality that are commonly utilized in evaluating statistical information. The importation of new modeling tools brings new promise to measuring total survey error components, but also new challenges. A lasting value of the total survey error framework is at the design stage of a survey, to attempt a balance of costs and various errors. Indeed, this framework is the central organizing structure of the field of survey methodology.