Climate-induced overwintering challenges for wheat and rye in northern agriculture

Winters are typically harsh in the northernmost agricultural areas of Europe, and winter rye (Secale cereale L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are the only winter grain crops that can be grown. However, climate change is projected to result in milder winters, which may enable cultivation of winter crops to a greater extent in the future than is possible today. In this study we aimed at identifying main temperature, precipitation events and characteristics that have resulted in past poor overwintering of rye and wheat in their current production areas in Finland. Using long-term (1970-2006), multi-location datasets, we compared our findings with the projected major changes attributable to climate change. Mixed models were used to estimate mutually comparable overwintering damage to all experiments and logistic regression was used to determine whether climatic parameters are related to high levels of overwintering damage. Severity of overwintering damage, and associated yield penalties, fluctuate considerably on a year-to-year basis and no consistent reduction in variability was recorded during the study period. Particularly for wheat, severity of winter damage in any one year was associated negatively with area sown in the following year. There was no evidence of consistent genetic improvements in winter hardiness, but rye was more winter hardy than wheat. Current risks associated with rye production related to low temperatures could be alleviated in the future, although overwintering damage currently enhanced by high autumn precipitation could increase due to climate change. For wheat, fluctuating conditions hampered overwintering, which may be an even harder challenge in future when weather variation is projected to increase and extreme weather events are projected to become more common.