期刊
JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
卷 30, 期 6, 页码 565-578出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/for.1213
关键词
Google Trends; private consumption; forecasting; consumer sentiment indicators
In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey-based indicators: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey-based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may offer significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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