Foreign Media and Protest Diffusion in Authoritarian Regimes: The Case of the 1989 East German Revolution

Do foreign media facilitate the diffusion of protest in authoritarian regimes? Apparently for the first time, the author tests this hypothesis using aggregate and survey data from communist East Germany. The aggregate-level analysis takes advantage of the fact that West German television broadcasts could be received in most but not all parts of East Germany. The author exploits this natural experiment by conducting a matched analysis in which counties without West German television are matched to a comparison group of counties with West German television. Comparing these two groups of East German counties, the author finds no evidence that West German television affected the speed or depth of protest diffusion during the 1989 East German revolution. He also analyzes a survey of East German college students. Confirming the aggregate-level results, the survey data show that, at least among college students, exposure to West German television did not increase protest participation.