Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t - 1 and t - 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t - 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t - 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.