期刊
ANNALS OF OCCUPATIONAL HYGIENE
卷 55, 期 9, 页码 949-956出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/annhyg/mer094
关键词
Bayesian analysis; exposure modelling; uncertainty
资金
- Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment
- UK Health and Safety Executive
- French agency for environmental and occupational health safety (Afsset)
- Cefic LRI
- SHELL
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Eurometaux
- British Occupational Hygiene Society (BOHS)
This paper provides an outline of the Advanced REACH Tool (ART) version 1.0 and a discussion of how it could be further developed. ART is a higher tier exposure assessment tool that combines mechanistically modelled inhalation exposure predictions with available exposure data using a Bayesian approach. ART assesses exposure for scenarios across different plants and sites. Estimates are provided for different percentiles of the exposure distribution and confidence intervals around the estimate. It also produces exposure estimates in the absence of data, but uncertainty of the estimates will decrease when results of exposure measurements are included. The tool has been calibrated using a broad range of exposure data and provides estimates for exposure to vapours, mists, and dusts. ART has a robust and stable conceptual basis but will be refined in the future and should therefore be considered an evolving system. High-priority areas for future research are identified in this paper and include the integration of partially analogous measurement series, inclusion of company and site-specific assessments, user decision strategies linked to ART predictions, evaluation of validity and reliability of ART, exploring the possibilities for incorporating the dermal route and integration of ART predictions with tools for modelling internal dose. ART is initially developed in the scope of REACH but is equally useful for exposure assessment in other areas.
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