期刊
ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION
卷 7, 期 4, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijgi7040154
关键词
land-use/cover; urbanization; time series; CA-Markov
资金
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) President's International Fellowship Initiative (PIFI) [2016PE022]
This study explored the past and present land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes and urban expansion pattern for the cities of the Kathmandu valley and their surroundings using Landsat satellite images from 1988 to 2016. For a better analysis, LULC change information was grouped into seven time-periods (1988-1992, 1992-1996, 1996-2000, 2000-2004, 2004-2008, 2008-2013, and 2013-2016). The classification was conducted using the support vector machines (SVM) technique. A hybrid simulation model that combined the Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata (MC-CA) was used to predict the future urban sprawl existing by 2024 and 2032. Research analysis explored the significant expansion in urban cover which was manifested at the cost of cultivated land. The urban area totaled 40.53 km(2) in 1988, which increased to 144.35 km(2) in 2016 with an average annual growth rate of 9.15%, an overall increase of 346.85%. Cultivated land was the most affected land-use from this expansion. A total of 91% to 98% of the expanded urban area was sourced from cultivated land alone. Future urban sprawl is likely to continue, which will be outweighed by the loss of cultivated land as in the previous decades. The urban area will be expanded to 200 km(2) and 238 km(2) and cultivated land will decline to 587 km(2) and 555 km(2) by 2024 and 2032. Currently, urban expansion is occurring towards the west and south directions; however, future urban growth is expected to rise in the southern and eastern part of the study area, dismantling the equilibrium of environmental and anthropogenic avenues. Since the study area is a cultural landscape and UNESCO heritage site, balance must be found not only in developing a city, but also in preserving the natural environment and maintaining cultural artifacts.
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