Overdiagnosis from non-progressive cancer detected by screening mammography: stochastic simulation study with calibration to population based registry data

Objective To quantify the magnitude of overdiagnosis from non-progressive disease detected by screening mammography, after adjustment for the potential for lead time bias, secular trend in the underlying risk of breast cancer, and opportunistic screening. Design Approximate bayesian computation analysis with a stochastic simulation model designed to replicate standardised incidence rates of breast cancer. The model components included the lifetime probability of breast cancer, the natural course of breast cancer, and participation in organised and opportunistic mammography screening. Setting Isere, a French administrative region with nearly 1.2 million inhabitants. Participants All women living in Isere and aged 50-69 during 1991-2006. Main outcome measures Overdiagnosis, defined as the proportion of non-progressive cancers among all cases of invasive cancer and carcinoma in situ detected 1991-2006. Results In 1991-2006, overdiagnosis from non-progressive disease accounted for 1.5% of all cases of invasive cancer (95% credibility interval 0.3% to 2.9%) and 28.0% of all cases of carcinoma in situ (2.2% to 59.8%) detected either clinically or by screening mammography in Isore. When analysis was restricted to the cancers detected by screening mammography only, the estimates of overdiagnosis were 3.3% (0.7% to 6.5%) and 31.9% (2.9% to 62.3%) for invasive cancer and carcinomas in situ, respectively. Conclusion Overdiagnosis from the detection of non-progressive disease by screening mammography was limited in 1991-2006 in Isore. Because carcinoma in situ accounted for less than 15% of all incident breast cancer cases, its contribution to overdiagnosis was relatively limited and imprecise.