Scenario analysis of urban energy saving and carbon abatement policies: A case study of Beijing city, China

Cities account for nearly 75% of the world's energy consumption and contribute more than 80% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission; therefore, they attract initiatives aimed at energy conservation and reduction of emission. Currently, in China, diversified models and policies associated with urban development have been put forward including the sustainable city, eco-city and low-carbon city models, and urban recycling economy. However, the most eco-friendly model is currently not known. This research, taking Beijing as a case study, was conducted to predict the effects of different development alternatives on future energy consumption and carbon emission. A Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was built to analyze the future trends of energy demand, energy structure and carbon emission from the base year 2007 to 2030 under three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), basic-policy (BP) and low-carbon (LC). The results show that in the LC scenario the total energy demand in Beijing is expected to reach 88.61 million metric tons coal equivalent (Mtce) by 2030, 55.82% and 32.72% lower than those of the BAU and BP scenarios, respectively. The total carbon emissions in 2030 with the LC scenario, although higher than the 2007 values, will be 62.22% and 36.75% lower than the BAU and BP scenarios, respectively. In addition, clean and efficient energy will account for 58% of the total energy consumption of Beijing under the LC scenario in 2030; this is 17% and 12% higher than those of the BAU and BP scenarios, respectively. In terms of the reduction potential of energy consumption and carbon emissions, the industrial sector will continue to account for the largest proportion under the BP and LC scenarios when compared with the BAU scenario. Importantly, the building and transport sectors were identified as promising fields for achieving effective control of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Beijing over the next two decades. Overall, the results of this study provide insights into Beijing's energy future and highlight possible steps to develop a sustainable low-carbon city. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B. V. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of School of Environment, Beijing Normal University.