期刊
WATER
卷 10, 期 5, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/w10050647
关键词
prediction of streamflow; rainfall runoff model; typhoon
资金
- Advanced Water Management Research Program - Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government [11-TI-C06]
- 2015 International Hydrological Program (IHP) - Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
- Statistical Analysis and Consulting Center in Chungbuk National University
- National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant Korea government (MSIP) [2017R1C1B5015192]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2017R1C1B5015192] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
Typhoons are the main type of natural disaster in Korea, and accurately predicting typhoon-induced flood flows at gauged and ungauged locations remains an important challenge. Flood flows caused by six typhoons since 2002 (typhoons Rusa, Maemi, Nari, Dienmu, Kompasu and Bolaven) are modeled at the outlets of 24 Geum River catchments using the Probability Distributed Moisture model. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox is applied with the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency as the criterion for model parameter estimation. Linear regression relationships between the parameters of the Probability Distributed Moisture model and catchment characteristics are developed for the purpose of generalizing the parameter estimates to ungauged locations. These generalized parameter estimates are tested in terms of ability to predict the flood hydrographs over the 24 catchments using a leave-one-out validation approach. We then test the hypothesis that a more complex generalization approach, the Generalized Estimating Equation, which includes properties of the typhoons as well as catchment characteristics as predictors of PDM model parameters, will provide more accurate predictions. The results show that the predictions of Generalized Estimating Equation are comparable to those of the simpler, conventional regression. The simpler approach is therefore recommended for practical applications; however, further refinements of the Generalized Estimating Equation approach may be explored.
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