Model-Based Evaluation of the Effects of River Discharge Modulations on Physical Fish Habitat Quality

The increase in minimum flows has rarely been considered to mitigate the ecological impact of hydroelectric power plants because it requires a site-specific design and expensive long-term monitoring procedure to identify the most beneficial scenario. This study presents a model-based method to estimate, within the model constraints, the most sustainable scenario of water resource sharing between nature and human needs. We studied physical habitat suitability of the Isar River in Munich (Germany) for three protected fish species: Thymallus thymallus L., Hucho hucho L., and Chondostroma nasus L. The analysis combined a high-resolution two-dimensional (2D) hydromorphological model with expert-based procedures using Computer Aided Simulation Model for Instream Flow Requirements (CASiMIR). We simulated a range of minimum discharges from 5 to 68.5 m(3)/s and four scenarios: (A) maximum use of the resource for humans; (B) slight increase in the minimum water flow; (C) medium increase in the minimum water flow; and, (D) without diversion for hydroelectric production. Under the current hydromorphological conditions, model outputs showed that different life stages of the fish species showed preferences for different scenarios, and that none of the four scenarios provided permanently suitable habitat conditions for the three species. We suggest that discharge management should be combined with hydromorphological restoration actions to re-establish parts of the modified channel slope and/or parts of the previously lost floodplain habitat in order to implement a solution that favors all species at the same time. The modeling procedure that is presented may be helpful to identify the discharge scenario that is most efficient for maintaining target fish species under realistic usage conditions.