Population growth and local public finance in Japanese cities

The determinants of Japanese city population growth for the period 2000 to 2005 are empirically examined with particular attention to local public finance. The selection of one Fiscal Indicator (FI) from four alternatives ordinary balance ratio (OBR), ratio of outstanding borrowing (ROB) to the ordinary account, debt service payment ratio (DSPR) and financial power index (FPI) - and the consideration of spatial auto-correlation provide 12 regression models. In each regression, six additional explanatory variables are considered with reference to earlier empirical studies. Empirical results suggest that (1) three FIs, excluding DSPR, are significant; and (2) the number of local government officers and the ratio of graduates of not-less-than junior college are highly significant in all specifications.