Changing Patterns and Determinants of Interprovincial Migration in China 1985-2000

Most migration analyses focus on inter-regional migration in one particular period. Recently, efforts have also been made to compare migration intensity and patterns across countries. Instead of comparison over space, this paper is concerned with the temporal dimension. Can the same model, using the same set of variables, explain migration patterns in two different periods? Is there any change in the determinants of interprovincial migration in China? This paper attempts to answer these questions using migration data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses of China. It was found that coastal regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Tianjin, and Fujian joined Shanghai and Beijing as the top destinations of migration over time. Pull factors in the growing regions play an important role in the expanding migration in China. The same set of variables was used to explain the migration in 19851990 and 19952000. The same model can explain 51.6% of the variation of migration in 19952000, greater than 41.6% in 19851990. Nevertheless, absolute parameters in the model were bigger in 19952000 than in 19851990 to reflect the increasing scale of migration. A better model for 19952000 is also established using a new set of variables. Two income variables have a positive impact on migration, confirming the importance of income in internal migration in China. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.