Validation of 2-year 123I-meta-iodobenzylguanidine-based cardiac mortality risk model in chronic heart failure

Aims The aim of this study was to validate a four-parameter risk model including 1231-meta-iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging, which was previously developed for predicting cardiac mortality, in a new cohort of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods and results Clinical and outcome data were retrospectively obtained from 546 patients (age 66 14 years) who had undergone 1211-MIBG imaging with a heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR). The mean follow-up time was 30 20 months, and the endpoint was cardiac death. The mortality outcome predicted by the model was compared with actual 2-year event rates in pre-specified risk categories of three or four risk groups using Kaplan Meier survival analysis for cardiac death and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Cardiac death occurred in 137 patients, including 105 (68%) patients due to heart-failure death. With a 2-year mortality risk from the model divided into three categories of low- (<4%), intermediate- (4 12%), and high-risk (>12%), 2-year cardiac mortality was 1.1%, 7.9%, and 54.7%, respectively in the validation population (P<0.0001). In a quartile analysis, although the predicted numbers of cardiac death was comparable with actual number of cardiac death for low- to intermediate-risk groups with a mortality risk <13.8%, it was underestimated in the high-risk group with a mortality risk >13.8%. The ROC analysis showed that the 2-year risk model had better (P < 0.0001) diagnostic ability for predicting heart failure death than left ventricular ejection fraction, natriuretic peptides or HMR alone. Conclusion The 2-year risk model was successfully validated particularly in CHF patients at a low to intermediate cardiac mortality risk.