Bioclimatic and altitudinal variables influence the potential distribution of canine parvovirus type 2 worldwide

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) is extremely contagious and causes high rate of morbidity to many wild carnivores. It has three variants (CPV-2a, CPV-2b, and CPV-2c) that are distributed worldwide with different frequencies and levels of genetic and antigenic variability. The disease poses a threat to the healthy survival and reproduction of wildlife. The research on the relationship between CPV-2 epidemic and environmental variables is lacking. To fill this research gap, we used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach with principal component analysis (PCA) to evaluate the relation between CPV-2 and environmental variables and to create a world risk map for this disease. According to the PCA results, 18 environmental variables were selected from 68 variables for subsequent analyses. MaxEnt showed that annual mean temperature, isothermality, altitude, November precipitation, maximum temperature of warmest month, and precipitation of warmest quarter were the six most important variables associated with CPV-2 distribution, with a total of 77.7% percent contribution. The risk of this disease between 18 degrees N and 47 degrees N was high, especially in the east of China and the United States. These results support further prediction of risk factors for this virus to help secure the health and sustainable survival of wild carnivores.