Predicting individual responses to the electroconvulsive therapy with hippocampal subfield volumes in major depression disorder

Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is one of the most effective treatments for major depression disorder (MDD). ECT can induce neurogenesis and synaptogenesis in hippocampus, which contains distinct subfields, e.g., the cornu ammonis (CA) subfields, a granule cell layer (GCL), a molecular layer (ML), and the subiculum. It is unclear which subfields are affected by ECT and whether we predict the future treatment response to ECT by using volumetric information of hippocampal subfields at baseline? In this study, 24 patients with severe MDD received the ECT and their structural brain images were acquired with magnetic resonance imaging before and after ECT. A state-of-the-art hippocampal segmentation algorithm from Freesurfer 6.0 was used. We found that ECT induced volume increases in CA subfields, GCL, ML and subiculum. We applied a machine learning algorithm to the hippocampal subfield volumes at baseline and were able to predict the change in depressive symptoms (r = 0.81; within remitters, r = 0.93). Receiver operating characteristic analysis also showed robust prediction of remission with an area under the curve of 0.90. Our findings provide evidence for particular hippocampal subfields having specific roles in the response to ECT. We also provide an analytic approach for generating predictions about clinical outcomes for ECT in MDD.