Risk Dishabituation: In Repeated Gambling, Risk Is Reduced Following Low-Probability Surprising Events (Wins or Losses)

In path-dependent risk taking, like playing a slot machine, the wager on one trial may be affected by the outcome of the preceding trial. Previous studies have shown that a person's risk-taking preferences may change as a result of the preceding trial (win or loss). For example, the house money effect suggests that risk taking may increase after a win, whereas the break even effect posits that risk taking increases after a loss. Independent of those findings, a person's emotional state has been found to influence risk taking. For example, the mood maintenance hypothesis supports the notion that positive affect decreases risk taking, and related research finds that increased negative affect increases risk taking. Because winning and losing may influence one's emotional state, we sought to investigate how both previous outcomes, as well as a person's emotional responses to those outcomes, independently influence subsequent risk taking. To do this, data were collected using three simplified slot machines where the chance of winning each trial was set to 13%, 50%, and 87%, respectively. Evidence for the break even and house money effects were found on the 13% and 87% games, respectively. Likewise, emotional valence was found to predict risk taking on these two tasks, with emotional valence fully explaining the break even effect observed on the 13% game. In addition to these results, the present research revealed that risk taking is reduced following low-probability (surprising) events (i.e., a win in the 13% condition or loss in the 87% condition). Dubbed risk dishabituation, this phenomenon is discussed, along with its likely corresponding emotional experience surprise.