After It's Too Late: Estimating the Policy Impacts of Black Mayoralties in U.S. Cities

Does a black mayor's inauguration influence American cities' policies? The heated rhetoric surrounding some black-white elections suggests that it might. Past research is divided. Yet this question has not been addressed in years or with many observations. This article uses novel data sets including 167 elections and 108 black mayors to examine their impact on fiscal and employment policies. Empirically it uses multiple approaches including regression discontinuity design. In most observable policy areas, the inauguration of a black mayor leads to policies that are indistinguishable from cities where black mayors do not govern. Police hiring represents an exception, with black mayors hiring more black officers. These results suggest a disconnect between the racially polarized elections that produce black mayors and the governance that follows. They raise concerns about the potential of city elections to induce accountability, and they reinforce the centrality of criminal justice as an urban political issue.