Predictive modeling of battery degradation and greenhouse gas emissions from US state-level electric vehicle operation

Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely promoted as clean alternatives to conventional vehicles for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ground transportation. However, the battery undergoes a sophisticated degradation process during EV operations and its effects on EV energy consumption and GHG emissions are unknown. Here we show on a typical 24 kWh lithium-manganese-oxide-graphite battery pack that the degradation of EV battery can be mathematically modeled to predict battery life and to study its effects on energy consumption and GHG emissions from EV operations. We found that under US state-level average driving conditions, the battery life is ranging between 5.2 years in Florida and 13.3 years in Alaska under 30% battery degradation limit. The battery degradation will cause a 11.5-16.2% increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions per km driven at 30% capacity loss. This study provides a robust analytical approach and results for supporting policy making in prioritizing EV deployment in the U.S.