Relationships between variability in precipitation, river levels, and beef cattle production in the Brazilian Pantanal

The hydrology of the Brazilian Pantanal, part of the largest humid tropical area on the planet, follows the rhythm of seasonal floods. The traditional movement of cattle herds in the southern Pantanal is defined by these seasonal flooding patterns, which determine the availability and quality of native-grass pastures throughout the year. Extreme hydrological events, such as prolonged droughts and intense floods, can impact the management of cattle in this region, preventing access to, circulation within, and occupation of some grazing areas. This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation, the river levels in this region from 1974 to 2012, and assessed the effects on the evolution of local beef cattle stocks. We integrated the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and river levels for six gaging stations and standardized these variables using standard deviation and linear trends at annual and seasonal scales. Additionally, we integrated the results with an analysis of the livestock production within the region's municipalities. Regional precipitation was highly variable, including an almost decadal oscillation, with positive trends in parts of the 1970s and 1980s and a negative trend since the 1990s. River levels in the northern portion of the basin and in the Paraguay River corresponded to those dynamics while presenting marked anomalies. Simultaneously, river levels in the eastern Pantanal changed from negative to positive anomalies, which were more intense in wet months. Both the eastern and western patterns reflected the occurrence of extreme El Nino-Southern Oscillation events and other large-scale climatic patterns. In intra-annual terms, the variability of the river levels during the flooded months at four of the six gaging stations studied suggests an early onset or delay of the flood season, as well as positive anomalies in the ebbing months and in the southeast. Given the lags in flow between different rivers in the region, this behavior draws attention to dam construction and intensification of localized flooding in the southern areas, which may impact everyday life and cattle management. For example, from 2009 to 2012, two severe droughts and an extreme flood significantly impacted livestock numbers in the region. Overall, herd numbers decreased (increased) in humid (dry) periods, including a reduction of over 1 million head during the flood of 1973-1974. The differential level patterns at annual, wet season, and dry season between the eastern and western sides of the Pantanal modulate the livestock activities, where the strong negative anomalies of the levels along the eastern side seem to force the diminution of beef cattle stock at local regions in different intensities in annual scale. This reinforces the effects of climate variability and extreme hydrological events on the management and dynamics of the beef cattle industry and market in Brazil.