期刊
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
卷 634, 期 -, 页码 95-108出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.170
关键词
Climate change; Climate mapping; Meteorology; Time series analysis; Spatial heterogeneity; ARDL; GIS
资金
- PIFI project of CAS [2017PC0074]
Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various implications for the environment and socio-economic conditions of the people. Its effects are deeper in an agrarian economy which is susceptible to the vagaries of nature. Therefore, climate change directly impacts the society in different ways, and society must pay the cost. Focusing on this truth, the main objective of this research was to investigate the empirical changes and spatial heterogeneity in the climate of Pakistan in real terms using time series data. Climate change and variability in Pakistan, over time, were estimated from 1961 to 2014 using all the climate variables for the very first time. Several studies were available on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation; however, it was difficult to observe exactly how much change occurred in which province and when. A multidisciplinary approach was utilized to estimate the absolute change through a combination of environmental, econometric, and remote sensing methods. Moreover, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelwas used to ascertain the extent of variability in climate change and information was digitalized through ground truthing. Results showed that the average temperature of Pakistan increased by 2 degrees C between 1960 and 1987 and 4 degrees C between 1988 and 2014, and R-2 was 0.978. The rate of temperature increased 0.09 degrees C between 1960 and 2014. The mean annual precipitation of Pakistan increased by 478mm, and its R-2 were 0.34-0.64. The mean annual humidity of Pakistan increased by 2.94%, and the rate of humidity has been increased by 0.97% from 1988 to 2014. Notably, Sindh and Balochistan provinces have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity regarding the increase in precipitation. Statistically all variables are significant. This would serve as a baseline information for climate change-related studies in Pakistan and its application in different sectors. This would also serve the plant breeders and policymakers of the country. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据