Cross-shelf carbon transport under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the East China Sea during winter

Based on Marx-Planck coupled model simulations and in situ hydrography measurements, the volume transport of ocean currents and associated carbon fluxes across the continental margin from the continental shelf to the deep ocean in the East China Sea during winter are estimated. Because cross-shelf currents in the Yellow and East China seas are much stronger in winter than in other seasons and are subducted into the subsurface Kuroshio, the cross-shelf burial of carbon takes place mainly in winter. The analyses show prominent cross-shelf transports during winter in the Yellow and East China seas, with annual mean offshore transport across a section from Taiwan to Cheju at 3.92 Sv (1 Sv=10(6) m(3) s(-1)). Net transport across the section was 0.82 Sv off the shelf, determined by the difference between Taiwan and Cheju strait transports. Net cross-shelf transports of dissolving inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) in winter were 98, 12, and 0.1 million tons, respectively. Under global greenhouse gas emission reduction (RCP4.5) and continuous increase (RCP8.5) scenarios, this cross-shelf transport has an increasing trend. The transports across the Taiwan-Cheju section in winter are predicted to increase by 0.54 and 0.65 Sv from 2006 to 2099, with rates of increase 15.3% and 19.6%, respectively. Associated with the transport increase, the cross-shelf fluxes of DIC, DOC and POC increase by as much as 15.4-25.2%. Cross-shelf carbon fluxes in the East China Sea during winter are evaluated for the first time under the global warming scenarios, showing the importance of cross-shelf transport in the carbon cycle of the China marginal seas.