Modeling the potential impact of lithium recycling from EV batteries on lithium demand: A dynamic MFA approach

Electric mobility is a key element in the transition to a more sustainable transport system. Already today Li-ion batteries (LIB) are used in many stationary and mobile applications. If electric vehicles (EV) based on LIB reach a strong market penetration the recycling of lithium from growing numbers of automotive batteries will be decisive for future availability of this resource. However, the amount that EV battery recycling can contribute to lithium availability is unclear since the ability of secondary lithium to be reused in batteries is uncertain. Here we assess the trend in demand for lithium and the possible effects of automotive battery recycling by applying dynamic material flow analysis to the global lithium cycle. We found that lithium recovery from EV battery recycling could result in a significant oversupply of secondary material if its quality is not high enough to allow for reprocessing in battery production. In this case the application of secondary lithium would be limited to other use sectors and thus also restrict the possible savings of this resource. If secondary lithium only substitutes a relatively small quantity of virgin material whereas total lithium demand keeps rising, the production of primary raw materials will have to increase strongly. The findings of our work reveal the challenge that might result from a quality problem of recycled battery materials and thereby emphasize the importance of developing cost-effective recycling technologies with efficient material recovery processes for traction batteries as well as the timely development of a functioning recycling infrastructure.