期刊
RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
卷 137, 期 -, 页码 89-100出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.05.019
关键词
Coal power; Power & energy balance model; Overcapacity; China
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71673085]
- Beijing Social Science Fund [16YJB027]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2018ZD14]
- 111 Project [B18021]
Since the project approval right was decentralized from the central government to the local governments in 2014 in China, a large quantity of coal power projects has been approved and built, resulting in low operation efficiency and calling for strict de-capacity policy. In this paper, we estimate coal power overcapacity with a cross-province power and energy balance model. We estimate the overcapacity situation in 2015 at 140-160 GW with a comprehensive dataset. The 2020 overcapacity scenario is estimated with detailed representation of official planning and new projects under construction. The results show that there is a general trend of growing overcapacity in most provinces by 2020 and the national excess scale will be around 210 GW under the basic scenario and may even reach 240-260 GW under a High scenario. Relevant policy suggestions are put forward to address the overcapacity issue.
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