期刊
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
卷 169, 期 -, 页码 242-257出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.001
关键词
Fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA); Simulation-based PRA; Integrated probabilistic risk assessment (I-PRA); Uncertainty analysis; Fire dynamics simulator (FDS); Fire brigade; Fire human reliability analysis (HRA); Common cause failure; Global importance measure
In this research, an Integrated probabilistic risk assessment (I-PRA) methodological framework for Fire PRA is developed to provide a unified multi-level probabilistic integration, beginning with spatio-temporal simulation based models of underlying failure mechanisms (Le., physical phenomena and human actions), connecting to component-level failures, and then linking to system-level risk scenarios in classical PRA. The simulation-based module, called the fire simulation module (FSM), includes state-of-the-art models of fire initiation, fire progression, post-fire failure damage propagation, fire brigade response, and scenario-based damage. Fire progression is simulated using a CFD code, fire dynamics simulator (FDS), which solves Navier-Stokes equations governing the turbulent flow field. Uncertainty quantification is conducted to address parameter uncertainties. The I-PRA paves the way for reducing excessive conservatisms derived from the modeling of (i) fire progression and damage and (ii) the interactions between fire progression and manual suppression. Global importance measure analysis is used to rank the risk-contributing factors. A case study demonstrates the implementation of I-PRA for a regulatory-documented fire scenario. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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