期刊
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
卷 80, 期 2, 页码 267-285出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.004
关键词
New and emerging science and technologies; Future-oriented technology analyses; Technology forecasting; Innovation pathways; Nanotechnology; Biosensors; Brain implants
资金
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- SBE Off Of Multidisciplinary Activities [1064146] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
New and Emerging Science and Technologies (NESTs) have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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