期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 115, 期 20, 页码 5151-5156出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1802479115
关键词
mathematical model; age structured; vaccination; DALY; hospitalization
资金
- National Institutes of Health [U01 GM105627, U01 GM087719]
The efficacy of influenza vaccines varies from one year to the next, with efficacy during the 2017-2018 season anticipated to be lower than usual. However, the impact of low-efficacy vaccines at the population level and their optimal age-specific distribution have yet to be ascertained. Applying an optimization algorithm to a mathematical model of influenza transmission and vaccination in the United States, we determined the optimal age-specific uptake of low-efficacy vaccine that would minimize incidence, hospitalization, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively. We found that even relatively low-efficacy influenza vaccines can be highly impactful, particularly when vaccine uptake is optimally distributed across age groups. As vaccine efficacy declines, the optimal distribution of vaccine uptake shifts toward the elderly to minimize mortality and DALYs. Health practitioner encouragement and concerted recruitment efforts are required to achieve optimal coverage among target age groups, thereby minimizing influenza morbidity and mortality for the population overall.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据