Spatio-temporal trends in stock mixing of eastern and western Baltic cod in the Arkona Basin and the implications for recruitment

In the Baltic Sea, two genetically distinct cod populations occur, the eastern and the western Baltic cod. Since 2006, cod abundance has increased substantially in the Arkona Basin (SD 24), the potential mixing area between the two stocks management areas, presumably due to spill-over from the eastern stock. In this study, the spatio-temporal dynamics of stock mixing were analysed using shape analysis of archived otoliths. Further, the impact of eastern cod immigration on recruitment in the western Baltic Sea was investigated using hydrographic drift modelling. The percentage of eastern Baltic cod in the Arkona Basin increased from ca. 30% before 2005 to >80% in recent years. Geographic patterns in stock mixing with a pronounced east-west trend suggest that immigration occurs north of Bornholm, but propagates throughout the Arkona Basin. The immigration cannot be attributed to spawning migration, as no seasonal trend in stock mixing was observed. Based on environmental threshold levels for egg survival and time-series of hydrography data, the habitat suitable for successful spawning of eastern cod was estimated to range between 20 and 50% of the maximum possible habitat size, limited by primarily low salinity. Best conditions occurred irregularly in May-end June, interspersed with years where successful spawning was virtually impossible. Using a coupled hydrodynamic modelling and particle-tracking approach, the drift and survival of drifters representing eastern cod eggs was estimated. On average, 19% of the drifters in the Arkona Basin survive to the end of the yolk-sac stage, with mortality primarily after bottom contact due to low salinity. The general drift direction of the surviving larvae was towards the east. Therefore, it is the immigration of eastern cod, rather than larval transport, that contributes to cod recruitment in the western Baltic Sea.