Using model-based evidence in the governance of pandemics

Pandemic preparedness planning relies on techniques to extend epidemiological inference beyond the bounds of direct observation. Mathematical modelling and simulation techniques are used to predict the course of an outbreak or test various mitigation strategies in pre-pandemic preparedness planning. This reflects an increasing reliance on quantifiable objects and establishing regulatory and governing practices by developing numerical assessment methods. This process has been described in terms of techne; the emergence of technologies and practices of calculation in the context of governance. This article develops a narrative framework to study how modelling methods are used in the governance of pandemic outbreaks by analysing both pre-pandemic modelling practices and model-based evidence used in pandemic risk assessment at the European Disease Control Centre. It examines how the modelling methods form techne through which the efforts of governance are organised. It concludes with a critical reflection on the limits of modelling methods by studying how they accommodate uncertainties.