期刊
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH
卷 25, 期 2, 页码 212-232出版社
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2012.731379
关键词
Economic impact methodology; Input-output analysis; Disasters; Port disruptions; Resilience
类别
This paper develops a methodology for the estimation of the total economic consequences of a seaport disruption, factoring in the major types of resilience. The foundation of the methodology is a combination of demand-driven and supply-driven input-output analyses. Resilience is included through a series of ad hoc adjustments based on various formal models and expert judgment. Moreover, we have designed the methodology in a manner that overcomes the major shortcomings of the supply-driven approach. We apply the methodology to a 90-day disruption at the twin seaports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, which is a major port area that includes a petrochemical manufacturing complex. We find that regional gross output could decline by as much as $13billion at the port region level, but that resilience can reduce these impacts by nearly 70%.
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