期刊
NEW PHYTOLOGIST
卷 219, 期 3, 页码 914-931出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/nph.15185
关键词
Amazon; biomass loss; climate change; droughts; ecosystem demography model; forest vulnerability; water and light competition
资金
- CNPq [200686/2005-4]
- NASA/NESSF [NNX08AU95H]
- NSF [OISE-0730305]
- NOAA Climate and Global Change fellowship award
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Andes-Amazon Initiative
- CNPq Millennium Institute of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA)
- FAPESP as part of the BARCA project
- French ANR ( [CEBA: ANR-10-LABX-0025]
- Systeme d'Observation et d'Experimentation sur le long terme pour la Recherche en Environnement 'Foret'
- [NASA/NNX08AP68A]
- [NASA/NNX10AR75G]
- NASA [93920, NNX08AU95H] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajos (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss >20% in 50yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km(2)) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2 sigma. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.
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