Longitudinal decline in structural networks predicts dementia in cerebral small vessel disease

Objective To determine whether longitudinal change in white matter structural network integrity predicts dementia and future cognitive decline in cerebral small vessel disease (SVD). To investigate whether network disruption has a causal role in cognitive decline and mediates the association between conventional MRI markers of SVD with both cognitive decline and dementia. Methods In the prospective longitudinal SCANS (St George's Cognition and Neuroimaging in Stroke) Study, 97 dementia-free individuals with symptomatic lacunar stroke were followed with annual MRI for 3 years and annual cognitive assessment for 5 years. Conversion to dementia was recorded. Structural networks were constructed from diffusion tractography using a longitudinal registration pipeline, and network global efficiency was calculated. Linear mixed-effects regression was used to assess change over time. Results Seventeen individuals (17.5%) converted to dementia, and significant decline in global cognition occurred (p = 0.0016). Structural network measures declined over the 3-year MRI follow-up, but the degree of change varied markedly between individuals. The degree of reductions in network global efficiency was associated with conversion to dementia (B = -2.35, odds ratio = 0.095, p = 0.00056). Change in network global efficiency mediated much of the association of conventional MRI markers of SVD with cognitive decline and progression to dementia. Conclusions Network disruption has a central role in the pathogenesis of cognitive decline and dementia in SVD. It may be a useful disease marker to identify that subgroup of patients with SVD who progress to dementia.