期刊
MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN
卷 131, 期 -, 页码 782-792出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076
关键词
Arctic; Oil spill; Expert elicitation; Sensitivity; Vulnerability; Uncertainty
资金
- Lloyd's Register Foundation [28/5/2013]
- Academy of Finland [304531]
- University of Helsinki's research funds [465/51/2014]
- Lloyd's Register Foundation
- Academy of Finland (AKA) [304531, 304531] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA)
Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据