The varying driving forces of urban expansion in China: Insights from a spatial-temporal analysis

Identifying the driving mechanisms and forces of urban expansion is an important step toward better understanding of the spatial pattern, process, and consequences of urban expansion, which is essential for making effective urban growth planning and policies. Despite many previous studies devoted to investigating urban expansion patterns and mechanisms, the spatial-temporal dynamics of driving forces and their regional differences have not been well-documented. This study examines drivers of urban expansion and their effects across different regions in China in different periods. A spatial Probit model is employed, with data selected based on a national-level sampling strategy, to model urban expansion probability from a spatially explicit perspective. Results indicate that multiple factors including socioeconomic, physical, proximity, accessibility, and neighborhood factors have driven urban expansion in China. Driving factors for urban expansion vary between national and regional levels, suggesting that analyses on different spatial scales are necessary. The dynamics and driving forces of urban expansion in China have been spatial heterogeneous. Furthermore, driving forces have trended toward more diversity over time, and the constraining effects of natural conditions on urban expansion have gradually decayed. These findings aid in gaining a better understanding of the urban expansion process in China, which will in turn benefit urban planning and management across different regions. Lastly, important policy implications are inferred.