期刊
JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT & FUZZY SYSTEMS
卷 26, 期 2, 页码 577-587出版社
IOS PRESS
DOI: 10.3233/IFS-120751
关键词
Project management; scheduling; fuzzy probability; fuzzy statistics
Taking into account the intrinsic drawbacks of both classic and fuzzy PERT, the authors present a new approach in an attempt to deal with them. The tools for this approach are fuzzy statistics and fuzzy probabilities. A necessary condition for this approach is the existence of statistical data for the project activity duration. The final findings are the fuzzy activity times (earliest/latest start - earliest/latest finish), the fuzzy float, the Criticality Degree both for each activity and for each path, a fuzzy probability for the activity duration to be in a certain time interval and a fuzzy probability for the project completion time to be in certain time interval. A numerical example is provided for thorough comprehension.
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