Observational Seismic Fragility Curves for Steel Cylindrical Tanks

The evaluation of seismic vulnerability of atmospheric above ground steel storage tanks is a fundamental topic in the context of industrial safety. Depending on the shell portion affected, on the extent of damage, and on toxicity, flammability, and reactivity of stored substances, liquid leakages can trigger hazardous chains of events whose consequences affect not only the plant but also the surrounding environment. In light of that, the study proposed herein provides an analysis of the seismic fragility of cylindrical above ground storage tanks based on observational damage data. The first phase of this work has consisted in collecting a large empirical dataset of information on failures of atmospheric tanks during past earthquakes. Two sets of damage states have then been used in order to characterize the severity of damage and the intensity of liquid releases. Empirical fragility curves have been fitted by using Bayesian regression. The advantage of this approach is that it is well suited to treat direct and indirect information obtained from field observations and to incorporate subjective engineering judgement. Different models have been employed in order to investigate the effects of tank aspect ratio, filling level, and base anchorage. Moreover, the effects of interaction between these critical aspects are included in fragility analysis. The hazard parameter used is the peak ground acceleration (PGA). Seismic fragility curves obtained from the described procedure are compared to those available in the technical literature.