Streamflow response to shrinking glaciers under changing climate in the Lidder Valley, Kashmir Himalayas

The study investigated the streamflow response to the shrinking cryosphere under changing climate in the Lidder valley, Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Kashmir Himalayas. We used a combination of multitemporal satellite data and topographic maps to evaluate the changes in area, length and volume of the glaciers from 1962 to 2013. A total of 37 glaciers from the Lidder valley, with an area of 39.76 km(2) in 1962 were selected for research in this study. It was observed that the glaciers in the valley have lost similar to 28.89 +/- 0.1% of the area and similar to 19.65 +/- 0.069% of the volume during the last 51 years, with variable interdecadal recession rates. Geomorphic and climatic influences on the shrinking glacier resources were studied. 30-years temperature records (1980-2010) in the study area showed a significant increasing trend in all the seasons. However, the total annual precipitation during the same period showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend except during the late summer months (July, August and September), when the increasing trend is significant. The depletion of glaciers has led to the significant depletion of the streamflows under the changing climate in the valley. Summer streamflows (1971-2012) have increased significantly till mid-nineties but decreased significantly thereafter, suggesting that the tipping point of streamflow peak, due to the enhanced glacier-melt contribution under increasing global temperatures, may have been already reached in the basin. The observed glacier recession and climate change patterns, if continued in future, would further deplete the streamflows with serious implications on water supplies for different uses in the region.