期刊
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS
卷 78, 期 -, 页码 150-162出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2018.02.001
关键词
Lottery selection; Subjective expected utility; Quantum-like model; Belief state; Decision operator; Interference effects
资金
- Marie Curie Fellowship at City University of London, H2020-MSA-IF-2015 [696331]
- Leverhulme Trust [RPG-2015-311]
- EU-project Quantum Information Access and Retrieval Theory (QUARTZ) [721321]
- Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [696331] Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)
We present a very general quantum-like model of lottery selection based on representation of beliefs of an agent by pure quantum states. Subjective probabilities are mathematically realized in the framework of quantum probability (QP). Utility functions are borrowed from the classical decision theory. But in the model they are represented not only by their values. Heuristically one can say that each value ui u(x(i)) is surrounded by a cloud of information related to the event (A, x(i)). An agent processes this information by using the rules of quantum information and QP. This process is very complex; it combines counterfactual reasoning for comparison between preferences for different outcomes of lotteries which are in general complementary. These comparisons induce interference type effects (constructive or destructive). The decision process is mathematically represented by the comparison operator and the outcome of this process is determined by the sign of the value of corresponding quadratic form on the belief state. This operational process can be decomposed into a few subprocesses. Each of them can be formally treated as a comparison of subjective expected utilities and interference factors (the latter express, in particular, risks related to lottery selection). The main aim of this paper is to analyze the mathematical structure of these processes in the most general situation: representation of lotteries by noncommuting operators. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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