University offer rates for candidates from different ethnic categories

Previous research suggested that candidates from some black and minority ethnic groups were less likely to receive an offer of a place from an old' university. These findings were disputed in a re-analysis carried out for HEFCE which found that only Pakistani candidates were significantly less likely to receive offers (from both old' and new' universities). In this paper we return to the question of ethnic differences in university offer rates, examining UCAS admissions data for 2008. We use a cross-classified multi-level modelling approach to predict the probability that applications from candidates from different ethnic groups will receive an offer. Controlling for variables seeking to capture the academic quality of applications we find significant differences between offer rates for different ethnic groups. Significantly lower offer rates remained for the main ethnic groups when social characteristics were also taken into account in the model (social class background, gender and school type). However, offer rates for candidates from mixed ethnic groups were not significantly different from those for white British candidates. Our analysis did not find evidence of differences in offer rates from higher and lower status institutions for black and minority ethnic candidates relative to white British applicants.