Population distribution and urban growth in Southern Italy, 1871-2011: emergent polycentrism or path-dependent monocentricity?

This study assesses changes in population distribution and the expansion of urban settlements in Southern Italy between 1871 and 2011. Four demographic phases are identified: (i) spatially balanced, mild population growth (1871-1921); (ii) moderate population increase concentrated in coastal and lowland areas (1921-1951); (iii) rapid and diffused population growth (1951-1981); and (iv) population stability with settlement dispersion (1981-2011). While urban growth in the years preceding the 1980s reinforced the polarization in rich and poor areas along the urban-to-rural gradient, since the early 1990s both urban and rural areas showed population dynamics that consolidated low-density settlements scattered around the largest cities. This path, however, does not reflect the evolution towards a more spatially balanced urban development, as observed in other European regions. Causes and consequences of the persistence of a fragmented urban hierarchy with dense settlements and sprawl concentrated around the main cities are finally discussed.