期刊
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
卷 6, 期 3, 页码 206-233出版社
AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC
DOI: 10.1257/app.6.3.206
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I examine the learning process that economic agents use to update their expectation of an uncertain and infrequently observed event. I use a new nation-wide panel dataset of large regional floods and flood insurance policies to show that insurance take-up spikes the year after a flood and then steadily declines to baseline. Residents in nonflooded communities in the same television media market increase take-up at one-third the rate of flooded communities. I find that insurance take-up is most consistent with a Bayesian learning model that allows for forgetting or incomplete information about past floods.
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