Statistical Model for Dam-Settlement Prediction and Structural-Health Assessment

This paper considers a hydrostatic-seasonal-time (HST) statistical model for predicting the settlement behavior of a concrete-faced rockfill dam (CFRD) during operation. The constituents of the model are innovatively related to viscoelastic-plastic material model components, with the novel addition of considering unloading-reloading behavior when determining the model parameters. The statistical model developed considers both load-related and time-related deformation behavior of rockfill and CFRDs. The discussion compares different functions from the literature describing time-dependent deformation of rockfill dams and CFRDs and emphasizes cautious selection of predictors to enhance any statistical model's credibility. The model is applied to the case of the 200-m-high Karahnjukar CFRD. The aim of the statistical analysis is first to create a prediction model for short- and long-term settlements of the dam, and second to extract behavioral patterns for structural-health monitoring applications. This is important for the operational safety of large dams, and thus the resilience and sustainability of related civil infrastructure systems.